How do you plan for things that may not happen for 30 years? Sudden shifts in technology or consumer tastes – like tsunamis (tidal waves triggered by undersea earthquakes) – are unpredictable. We know they’re coming but often can’t see them until it’s too late. Changes such as fundamentally new technologies (the web), new markets (sports-utility vehicles), and radically new ways of doing business (e-trade) can blow even the most nimble company out of the water. Even those who are good at riding the regular waves of change can be swept away by the hundred-year flood if they’re not prepared to deal with catastrophic change. It’s called preparedness – and it cannot rely simply upon last-minute, extraordinary measures.

In 1993, a tsunami struck Okushiri, Japan, and despite great damage and 239 people killed, the consensus was that "clearly both warning technology and community education greatly reduced the number of casualties." Over time, they had created sea walls and other coastal fortifications, extensive public outreach programs, and a warning system. When the inevitable finally happened "the [government] issued timely and accurate warnings, and many residents saved themselves by fleeing to high ground immediately after the main earthquake shock – even before the tidal wave warning."

What if we applied the Okushiri approach to managing the unpredictable changes in our businesses, too? Make catastrophe preparedness deeply and permanently part of the overall life of the company a habit. Here are a few suggestions:

1) Learn from the history of your industry. What has happened in the past few decades – not just the last few years? Identify previous catastrophes that shook the industry: their sources and consequences. How did surviving companies prepare?

2) Learn from other industries and fields. For example, why did some large airlines survive deregulation and some not?

3) Compare the winners and losers for lessons. Don’t just imitate survivors; you can’t tell what was the real cause of their success. What factors, strategies, and precautions really made the difference?

4) Act on lessons learned. Make a list of specific actions your company can take and enlist employees in putting measures in place, even if some steps remain on hold at present.

5) Don’t stop! This is a process, not an event. Make a habit of keeping your eyes open for lessons to be learned from current events in business and around the world. For instance, what could we learn about public relations in crisis management from President Clinton’s survival in office?

The companies that survive future catastrophes – from sudden oil embargoes to viral destruction of their internet network to emergencies not even invented yet – will be the ones that are practicing preparedness as a way of life, rather than hoping that the next tsunami never comes.